How are we going to generate our energy by 2035? Unless things radically change, mainly using fossil fuels, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 published by the US Energy Information Administration. The reference case is based on the assumption that “current laws and regulations remain unchanged thorough the projections.”
The plot below shows the relative contribution of different sources to electricity generation by the electric power sector in 2009 and those predicted for 2035 by the reference model (no major changes). The renewable contribution would increase from 10% in 2009 to around 12.5% by 2035. A similar increase from 23 to 29% is predicted for end-use generation.
The reference case predicts a healthy annual growth of 13% for solar photovoltaic. However, since in 2009 the PV contribution to the electric power sector was a mere 40 million kWh (compared to more than 2.5 trillion kWh from fossil fuels), the almost 50-fold increase in electricity generation from 2009 to 2035 barely makes a dent. Hydropower and wind get the lion’s share, accounting for 82% of the renewable generation in 2035. By that year, solar thermal and solar photovoltaic are predicted to contribute 0.5% and 0.2% to the renewable mixture.